A significant jump (32%) in total confirmed Dutch Covid19 cases today, as reported by the RIVM, the national institute for health and environment. We’re still on an exponential curve. Although the last two days showed lower increases, today’s report partly compensates for them due to wider testing than the preceding days. Comparing the curve to Italy’s curve, we’re about where Italy was 2 weeks ago.
The percentages of increase of the past three days are all well below 40% however (22%, 19%, 32%), which is the rate at which the total number of positive tests doubles every other day. We’re now doubling total number of cases every 3 to 4 days. I don’t know whether that is a reflection of still limited testing, or of current containment measures, or something else. Slower is better (as long as it isn’t caused by a cap on testing) as it allows the healthcare facilities to handle the required efforts better as it gets spread out over (slightly) more time.


Source: numbers taken from daily bulletins of the RIVM

It would be interesting to see how many tests are actually carried out, but the RIVM doesn’t seem to share those numbers. [UPDATE after 20mins] The RIVM indicated that if e.g. household members of confirmed patients develop symptoms they do not get tested and are automatically assumed to have Covid19. They are not included in the numbers therefore, and the actual number of infected people is higher than the numbers suggest. This to save the available tests for tracking the spread of the infection along less obvious paths. [UPDATE after 6 hours: The current total of tests done is around 10000, so a positive rate of about 5% now.]

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